How Avocados Stopped Being Seasonal
And what could threaten your Avocado Toast
Programming Note: I will be hosting my first ever Substack Live on June 19th, at 9 AM Pacific with Mike Lee, the author of the The Future Market newsletter. Mike is a Food Futurist & Innovation Strategist. We will explore the gap between a pitch deck and the dinner table, how food companies innovate & whether that signal reaches the farm, MAHA and GLP-1s and its impact on food & agriculture, the underlying supply chain, and many other topics.
One of my favorite breakfast items is avocado on sourdough toast, topped with apricot-jalapeño jelly, salt, and pepper. The beauty of this breakfast is that you can pretty much have it year-round and pair it with a mimosa on the weekend!
The miracle of being able to have avocado toast almost anywhere and anytime in the United States didn’t happen overnight. It is due to a combination of deliberate choices and technology development over the last 30 years.
The avocado is one of the silent logistics triumphs of the last three decades. The fruit that was kept out of the United States until the late 1990s is now a year-round phenomenon, and its future seems brighter. OECD-FAO predicts that avocados will become the most-traded major tropical fruit by 2030, overtaking pineapples and mangoes in quantity.
No visa for Mexican Avocados
The original ban on importing Mexican avocados to the United States dates back to 1914. USDA’s APHIS imposed a quarantine on Mexican avocados after the detection of avocado seed weevil. The pest risk posed by seed weevils, stem weevils, seed moths, and fruit flies was the stated reason to maintain the ban for the next few decades.
An avocado seed weevil is a destructive beetle (family Curculionidae) native to Mexico and Central America that attacks avocado crops. Avocado seed weevils are considered major agricultural pests and are subject to quarantine in the U.S. to prevent them from decimating domestic avocado crops. Because the larvae live deep inside the fruit, they are extremely difficult to control with traditional insecticides.
It is debatable whether the pest-based ban was protectionist toward local California growers. As late as the mid-1990s, Southern California produced 90% of the avocados Americans ate. California growers had every incentive to keep the competition out.
“Bigger than the Alamo”
The NAFTA accord brought a massive step change in the availability and U.S. domestic consumption of avocados. The U.S. wanted to send corn and other agricultural products to Mexico, and Mexico demanded a return favor, and avocados were part of that agreement.
NAFTA opened the door to Mexican avocado imports, though initially they were allowed only in 13 states and for only four months of the year.
Mexico put pest worries to rest by saying it would export the thick-skinned Michoacán Hass, instead of the pest-vulnerable thin-skinned variety. It is not surprising that California excluded itself from the list of states importing avocados.
The state’s avocado industry had opposed the APHIS import rules, and the California Avocado Commission challenged the 1997 and 2001 rules in court, arguing that APHIS violated the National Environmental Policy Act by failing to prepare an Environmental Impact Statement (For all you housing and energy YIMBYs and NIMBYs, this might all seem quite familiar!)
Almost 10 years after NAFTA opened up the American market, most U.S. states (including California) allowed the import of Hass avocados.
In the early 2000s, Congress passed the Hass Avocado Promotion, Research, and Information Act and created the Hass Avocado Board with the explicit purpose to “increase the consumption of Hass Avocados in the United States,” as the domestic supply couldn’t meet demand.
The Mexican exporters and the US importers came together and formed the Avocados from Mexico (AFM) marketing subsidiary to promote the sale and consumption of avocados in the United States. But before the Avocados from Mexico (AFM) subsidiary could convince customers, it had to convince grocery retailers to carry the product year-round.
The Super Bowl was chosen as an ideal time to promote avocado consumption. Super Bowl Sunday is the third-largest party day in the United States, after New Year’s and Halloween. The Super Bowl was also chosen because it conveniently coincided with Mexico’s production season and its peak supply window. The state of Michoacán in Mexico produces almost 80% of Mexico’s avocados.
When the US lifted the ban on importing avocados to California in 2007, the chairman of the California Avocado Commission said,
Mexican avocados into California is like they won the Alamo1. It is bigger than you and I can ever imagine.
In 2026, 300 million lbs of avocados were imported 4 weeks before the 2026 Super Bowl (20% above the historical average), with 20% of annual sales occurring around Super Bowl Weekend. (300 million lbs of avocados is about 7,000 semi-truck loads!!)
Cinco de Mayo2 is another manufactured celebration in the United States that also spikes avocado sales and consumption, as Americans eat copious amounts of guac, chips, and cerveza! Avocados first appeared on the U.S. food pyramid as early as 1992, and they have remained there even in the latest 2026 food pyramid.
Avocados are the John Stockton of grocery stores
For non-basketball fans, John Stockton is the career assist leader with almost 30% more assists than the second player on the list.
Avocados have a halo effect in the grocery store. Avocado consumption increased from about 1 pound per person per year to almost 9 pounds per person per year in 30 years. But another interesting thing happens in grocery stores, where smart merchandising boosts sales of other commodities when avocados are present.
According to a report from the Super Market Perimeter,
Produce displays that put complementary items close to each other encourage cross purchases, and classic pairings of contrasting colors, such as avocados and tomatoes, help draw the shopper’s attention.
Based on the study commissioned by Avocados from Mexico,
AFM-branded displays placed throughout the store helped boost sales for the meat department by 19%, the packaged bakery by 5%, and the deli by 4%.
The following video shows the journey of an avocado from the field to the chip (assuming you scoop up your guac with a chip!)
Multi-origin and counter-seasonal sourcing
Let us now try to answer the question of how avocados are available year-round, even as avocado consumption has increased 9-fold in the United States over the last 30 years.
Over the last 15 years, worldwide avocado production has nearly doubled, with Mexico, Peru, and Colombia leading the increase. Michoacán produces over 80% of Mexico’s avocados, with an annual export value of $2.4 billion. The value of Mexico’s avocado industry roughly quadrupled over the last decade.
Just like any other fresh perishable product, demand has to match supply over some time horizon. Just as we saw with blueberries, the year-long availability of avocados worldwide is made possible through overlapping avocado production seasons combined with some really cool logistics and supply chain technology.
Counter-seasonal sourcing fills supply gaps when the primary supply region slows or when supply is unavailable. It helps smooth out supply to match year-round demand. As a consumer, you might not even realize that the supply source for your avocados has changed if you are not paying attention to the little stickers on your avocados.
Avocados from Mexico can provide products almost year-round in the US, with Peru and California filling any supply gaps. Peru’s production has roughly doubled over the last few years.
The counter-seasonal calendar in the United States is anchored around Mexico, which meets 80% of the US demand. California’s peak window is in spring and summer, meeting seasonal domestic demand. Peru meets the summer demand, though it ships to Europe first, and can now satisfy the excess summer demand. Chile fills the gaps during August through December, while locations like Colombia are Europe-leaning and seeing rising supply.
Multi-origin sourcing provides a smooth supply to different parts of the world. Still, for a perishable product like an avocado, this is possible thanks to innovative logistics and technology.
Sleeping on a long voyage
Just like a perishable item, avocados are climacteric3.
Avocados are hard and green when picked. You could hurl a recently harvested avocado at someone and do some serious damage. But avocados ripen on a clock. The best part is that this clock can be stopped and restarted with the right temperature and the right type of gas.
The implications of this technology are enormous, as it converts a perishable item into a storable and shippable commodity.
Avocados naturally produce ethylene gas, which ripens the avocado.
To keep avocados “asleep” (preventing them from ripening) during long-distance transportation, the industry uses Controlled Atmosphere (CA) in refrigerated shipping containers. The shipping container stays at 5 to 7 degrees Celsius (41 to 45 degrees Fahrenheit). The CA containers lower oxygen levels and increase carbon dioxide levels through specialized gas management.
To further manage the effects of ethylene, ethylene inhibitors, such as 1-methylcyclopropene (1–MCP)4, are used in climacteric fruits like avocados to delay ripening and irreversibly bind to ethylene receptors on cell membranes. It extends the post-harvest life of avocados, slows softening, reduces color change, and reduces susceptibility to physiological disorders. The recommended MCP application protocol can extend the avocado’s shelf life to between one and two months.
These interventions ensure that when the avocado reaches the destination market, it is in the same hard, green condition as when harvested. The temperature and the MCP intervention help decouple the supply from the demand. Grocery retailers can then release them just-in-time to match the avocado demand at the consumer level.
But how do you match the ripeness of a sleeping avocado to the consumer expectations, depending on when the consumer demand is there?
Just-in-time avocados
Matching demand with the right avocado ripeness for consumers is achieved through ripening. You thought that auto and other industrial manufacturing industries are the heavy users of the just-in-time manufacturing philosophy. Well, the avocado supply chain also uses just-in-time principles.
Our big container of avocados has made it very close to its market. Those avocados came from Mexico, Peru, or one of the producing regions. The avocados are still asleep and not really ripening. The avocado supplier or the grocery retailer now needs to wake up the avocados and control the ripening process.
Timing the ripening process perfectly is important so that when you go to your grocery store, the avocados will be ready to eat in a few days. The supply of avocados has to match the demand for avocados. You ship too few ripening avocados, and you leave money on the table. You send more avocados than there is demand for, and you have to throw them in the trash, as nothing is uglier than an overripe avocado.
This process occurs in large ripening rooms. Bananas use a similar process, though avocados are a bit more complicated. As I have experienced during my many trips to banana ripening rooms, the process is both an art and a science.
Ripening fruit is a dying art, typically done by men who have been doing it for 30-40 years. The newer ripening rooms use a combination of sensors, IoT devices, and sophisticated AI algorithms to control the ripening process very carefully. The ripening process is matched with demand forecasting to ripen the right quantity and quality of avocados at the right time.
Controlled ripening ensures that the avocados you get at the store provide the best possible experience for your avocado toast, guac, or whatever else you use them for. (Smoothies, avocado ice cream???)
Will the Avocado Rush continue?
The big question is whether we will continue to get an uninterrupted supply of avocados throughout the year. Will we be able to enjoy our avocado toast and guac in the future?
NAFTA/USMCA and demand generation around the Super Bowl kicked off the avocado rush. Growers, vertically integrated suppliers such as Mission Produce and Calavo Growers (which merged as of May 2026), the supply chain, and technology responded to meet that demand.
The tariff wars of the last few years make the avocado rush question relevant, though Mexican avocados have largely escaped tariffs. As long as avocados meet USMCA’s rules of origin, they stay on the 0% tariff. Suppliers from Peru, Chile, and Colombia got hit with the 10% tariff, making them less competitive vis-à-vis Mexico for the US market5.
The tariff is not the near-term risk, but the whole USMCA structure itself is. The USMCA replaced NAFTA on July 1, 2020, but it included a sunset clause. (article 34.7) The three countries have to hold a mandatory review on the sixth anniversary (July 1, 2026 - just two weeks from now).
At the review, they can agree to extend the USMCA for another 16 years, or, failing agreement, fall back to annual reviews, with the USMCA slated for termination on July 1, 2036. Any party can walk away with a six-month notice during this period.
The non-existence of USMCA is one of the biggest risks (low probability) to your avocado toast.
There is enough diversification of supply across countries to cushion short- and medium-term hiccups by drawing on supply from elsewhere. A major supply shock to Mexico could have a larger impact, given that it accounts for 80% of the US supply. The sleeping and ripening technology helps cushion demand and supply shocks of a certain magnitude.
The drug cartels of Mexico have gotten involved in the avocado business, as it is “green gold”. Cartels seem to be charging growers a protection tax of a certain number of cents per unit weight of avocados. A further deterioration in the cartel situation in Mexico could adversely affect avocado supply. During a 2024 episode, assailants assaulted USDA inspectors at a Michoacán roadblock. It paused imports for a week, and carton prices shot up by 40%. A major escalation could pause imports for a longer period.
As a safety measure, in 2024, the USDA transferred the pest inspection of Mexican avocado orchards to the Mexican government, a move that raised significant concerns in the United States. The biological risks posed by pests can escalate quickly6 (as we are seeing with the screwworm episode right now), especially given the limited number of avocado varieties.
Remember that the original pest risk kept Mexico’s avocados out of US markets for almost 83 years.
On the surface, it might seem that avocados carry a similar monoculture exposure risk to bananas, given the dominance of Hass avocados, much like Cavendish bananas7.
Avocados have far better monoculture insurance, though. Avocados have seeds, so the plants that emerge during breeding exhibit genetic variability. Breeders can breed a resistant successor to a Hass avocado, but it is very hard to do with bananas.
One of the biggest long-term risks to avocado supply from Mexico is water availability, as avocados require substantial water to grow. Access to water is not a risk only for avocados but for crops in general. A peer-reviewed Michoacán study8 found that avocado farms can consume up to 120% of a municipality’s water concession.
Mexico will have to figure out a way to manage its water.
Trade agreements, demand for avocado products, global supply expansion, and technological sophistication will likely help protect our avocado toast breakfast in the future!
The biggest risk could be just be you and me, who cannot manage avocado ripeness at home, as was very delightfully described in this comedy bit by Josh Johnson!
I want to thank Alexander Kustov, Jeff Fong, Hiya Jain, and Mike Riggs for their feedback on this piece. Any errors are purely my own.
The Alamo is a historic Spanish mission and fortress complex in downtown San Antonio, Texas. Originally built as Mission San Antonio de Valero in the 1700s, it is world-renowned as the 1836 site of the Battle of the Alamo, where fewer than 200 Texan defenders made a valiant but tragic stand against thousands of Mexican troops.
Cinco de Mayo, meaning “the fifth of May,” is a holiday that celebrates the date of the Mexican army’s May 5, 1862, victory over France at the Battle of Puebla during the Franco-Mexican War. Although it is a relatively minor holiday in Mexico, in the United States, Cinco de Mayo has evolved into a commemoration of Mexican culture and heritage, particularly in areas with large Mexican American populations.
In plant biology, a climacteric fruit is a type of fruit that undergoes a distinct ripening phase. During this period, there is a sudden, marked rise in cellular respiration and ethylene production, allowing the fruit to ripen quickly.
Response Mechanisms of “Hass” Avocado to Sequential 1–methylcyclopropene Applications at Different Maturity Stages during Cold Storage https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9269533/
In February 2026, the US Supreme Court struck down the 25% IEEPA tariff on Mexican imports, which was replaced by a 10% Section 122 surcharge on non-USMCA goods, set to expire on July 24, 2026. USMCA-compliant goods, such as avocados, are exempt from this 10% surcharge.
The USDA confirmed a case of the flesh-eating New World screwworm (NWS) in a bovine in Zavala County, Texas (southwest of San Antonio). Because NWS larvae feed exclusively on living tissue, this is a severe threat to livestock, pets, and wildlife. Officials have placed a quarantine on Zavala and Uvalde counties.
Cavendish bananas are at severe risk of extinction due to Panama disease Tropical Race 4 (TR4), a soil-borne fungus. Because Cavendish bananas are seedless and reproduced through cloning, they form a global monoculture that lacks the genetic diversity required to evolve resistance to the fungus naturally.
Dhesi, S. Z., Jolly, A. R., Muñoz, R., Olson, V., & Huxman, T. E. (2025). Climate change and agricultural workers in the Michoacán avocado industry: Opportunities and trade-offs in coupling plant and human health for sustainability. Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1525/elementa.2025.00018
This travesty needs more coverage: https://agfundernews.com/apeel-founder-on-maha-misinformation-layoffs-and-a-second-act-in-post-harvest-tech
Unfortunately The Free Press has a paywall, so I can't share the original here. But Fast Company has also done an article: https://www.fastcompany.com/91554781/the-startup-that-tried-to-fix-food-waste-and-got-hit-by-a-disinformation-campaign
Your avocado toast game is SUPREME. I am on my way to find some apricot-jalapeño jelly to try on mine!